Inflation Outlook: Clear as Mud

At his July 22, 2022, press conference, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell said that over the coming months, the Fed “will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down, consistent with inflation returning to 2%.” Is there clear, convincing, or compelling evidence that inflation is headed that way? Not yet. The outlook is still as clear as mud. Let’s look at a few factors that inform our outlook on inflation.